How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Anderlecht to win 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Anderlecht host Kortrijk at home in the Belgian Pro League on 3 September 2026. Anderlecht sit 11th out of 18, three points clear of the team above them, St Truiden, and level on points with the side below, SK Beveren. Kortrijk are bottom of the table, 18th, with no points from three games and a goal difference of minus eight. The match could move Anderlecht a little higher and give Kortrijk a chance to climb out of the relegation places, but the stakes are heavier for the visitors who need points to survive.
Anderlecht’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight games they have won two, drawn two and lost four. The most recent result was a 3-0 defeat away to Union St Gilloise. Before that they beat Kairat Almaty 3-0 at home, then drew 2-2 with Fenerbahçe at home. They also lost 3-0 to Fenerbahçe away, lost 4-3 to 1899 Hoffenheim at home and lost 2-0 to Plzen away. In those eight matches they have scored 12 goals and let in 17. They kept only one clean sheet and failed to score in three games. Seven of the eight games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them. At home in the last four games they have one win, two draws and one loss.
Kortrijk have not collected any points from their opening three fixtures. Their goal difference sits at minus eight, reflecting a tough start to the season. Their most recent game was a 3-0 loss, which underlines the difficulties they have faced in finding the net and keeping a clean sheet. The lack of points and a poor defensive record show that they are struggling to compete at this level at the moment.
When these two clubs have met before, the games have often been open affairs with goals on both ends. The recent patterns for Anderlecht show many high-scoring encounters and a tendency for both teams to find the net. Given Kortrijk’s defensive frailties and Anderlecht’s ability to score, this match is likely to follow a similar pattern – an attacking game where the home side has the edge.
We pick Anderlecht to win. The numbers suggest they will score about 2.1 goals while Kortrijk are expected to manage around one. That gives Anderlecht roughly a 64 % chance of coming out on top. The price of 1.50 matches our view of the game. For this to go wrong, Anderlecht would need to fail to find a goal again or concede heavily, and Kortrijk would have to improve dramatically in defence. Otherwise, backing the home side looks the cleaner play.
Recent results
Anderlecht have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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