What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Charleroi and 1.3 from St. Gilloise, so St. Gilloise come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Correct score 0-1. This is our most likely exact scoreline for the game (xG 0.9-1.4). Correct score is a long shot by nature, so treat it as a small-stakes punt rather than a banker.
We put the chance of that landing at about 15 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
One thing to watch
Correct score is unforgiving: the right winner but the wrong number still loses. We only make this about 15%, so it's far from a lock.
