How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 3.5 goals 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
St Truiden host St Gilloise at home in the Belgian Pro League on 2 September 2026. The visitors sit second in the 18-team table with ten points from four matches and a goal difference of +10. That puts them in the European-qualification places, just two points behind Sporting Charleroi in third and one point ahead of Club Brugge in fourth. St Truiden are lower down the table, but the exact gap is not given. The clash is important for St Gilloise to keep their push for a top-three finish alive, while St Truiden will be hoping to close the distance and prove they can compete with the league’s best. Both sides have shown the ability to score, but the numbers we have suggest a modest tally – about 1.0 goal for St Truiden and 1.4 for St Gilloise, roughly 2.4 goals in total.
We think this game will be tight and low-scoring. Our expectation of 2.4 goals means the total is likely to stay under 3.5, and the price of 1.43 for an under-3.5 result matches our view. The chance of the score staying below that line is around 70 %. Clear chances should be rare, and any goal will be valuable. If the match turns into a cagey affair with both teams careful in defence, the under-3.5 bet should hold. It would only go wrong if the game opens up dramatically, with both sides creating many chances and scoring freely, pushing the total above three and a half goals. In that case the price would not be worth the risk. As it stands, the price looks good and the odds reflect the likely nature of the contest.
Recent results
St. Gilloise have won four of the last five meetings.
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