How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 4.5 goals 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Lommel SK and 1.4 from Club Brugge, so Club Brugge come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Lommel SK come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 2.8 goals (xG 1.2-1.6), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 84%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
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