How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Cercle Brugge and 1.6 from St Truiden, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-1.6), and we make both teams to score about 63%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A clean sheet at either end undoes it, and one side shutting up shop is always on the cards. We make it about 64% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.