How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 3.5 goals 67%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from St. Gilloise and 0.8 from Waregem, so St. Gilloise come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
St. Gilloise come into this on two straight wins. Waregem come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.8 goals in total (xG 2.0-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 69%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
St. Gilloise have won five of the last five meetings.
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