How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 3.5 goals 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from St. Gilloise and 0.8 from Waregem, so St. Gilloise come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.8 goals in total (xG 2.0-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 69%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. We make it about 70%: a lean, not a lock.
