How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 79%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Genk and 1.1 from Westerlo, so Genk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Westerlo come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.0 goals in total (xG 1.8-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 82%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Genk have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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