How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Club Brugge to win 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Oud-Heverlee Leuven and 2.4 from Club Brugge, so Club Brugge come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Oud-Heverlee Leuven come into this on two straight defeats. Club Brugge come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Club Brugge to win. Club Brugge shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.4), and we make them about 72% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Club Brugge have won five of the last five meetings.
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