How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Charleroi to score 2 or fewer 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Charleroi and 1.0 from Cercle Brugge, so Charleroi come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Charleroi to score 2 or fewer. This is about Charleroi's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 72%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Cercle Brugge have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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