How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Standard to score 1 or fewer 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Gent and 1.0 from Standard, so Gent come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Standard to score 1 or fewer. This is about Standard's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 72%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Gent have won five of the last five meetings.
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