How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 4. We made St Truiden to win 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
St Truiden host RAAL La Louviere at the start of September in the Belgian Pro League. St Truiden sit higher in the table than their visitors, and a win would pull them a few places up while RAAL would stay stuck near the bottom. Both teams are fighting for points, but the gap between them is clear. The numbers we have suggest St Truiden will score about two goals and RAAL about one, so the home side looks the stronger outfit.
St Truiden have played eight games in their recent run, mixing home and away fixtures. They lost 3-0 to St Gilloise at home, then bounced back with a 4-1 win over Antwerp away. After that they drew 3-3 with Cercle Brugge away and 1-1 with Lommel SK at home. They also beat Mechelen 3-0 at home before a 3-1 defeat at Anderlecht away. In their last four matches at home they have one win, two draws and one loss. Across those eight games they have scored 13 and let in 14. They kept only one clean sheet and failed to find the net in two matches. Five of the games featured three goals or more and both sides scored in five of them.
RAAL La Louviere have had a much tougher time in their last eight outings, winning just once, drawing once and losing six. Their most recent result was a 2-2 draw with Mechelen at home, before a 2-0 loss to Standard away, a 2-1 defeat to Gent at home and another 2-1 loss to Anderlecht away. They did manage a 4-1 victory over Cercle Brugge at home, but then fell 4-0 to Waregem away. The away side have now gone four games without a win and have lost all of their last four trips. In total they have scored eight and conceded 18 in the eight-match stretch, failing to score in four of those games. Six of the matches produced three goals or more and both teams found the net in four of them.
The two clubs have met twice before this clash. St Truiden won both meetings, the most recent being a 2-1 victory on 24 January 2026. Those games averaged three goals, showing that both sides can score and that the encounters tend to be open. Given St Truiden’s better record, their home advantage and the recent head-to-head results, we expect a similar pattern this time – a modest number of goals and the home side edging it.
We back St Truiden to win. Our reading of the form, the goal expectations and the head-to-head history all point to the home team taking all three points. The price of 1.64 is longer than we feel the game deserves, so it looks attractive. For our pick to fail, St Truiden would need to drop points at home after a short three-day turnaround and RAAL would have to find a way to score and hold on, something they have struggled to do in their recent away games. If those unlikely things happen, the result could be different, but we think the odds are in St Truiden’s favour.
Recent results
St Truiden have won two of the last two meetings.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
