How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Westerlo to score 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
St Truiden host Westerlo at home in the Belgian Pro League on 20 September 2026. St Truiden sit mid-table, while Westerlo are eighth out of eighteen with ten points from seven games and a goal difference of minus one. One point separates Westerlo from Standard Liège above them and from SK Beveren below them. Both teams are looking to improve their positions, and the match promises chances at both ends. Our numbers show St Truiden as the stronger side, but the game is likely to be open with goals from either side.
St Truiden have been inconsistent in their last eight matches, winning three, drawing two and losing three. Their most recent results were a 2-0 loss away at Beveren, a 4-0 home win over RAAL La Louvière, a 3-0 home defeat to St Gilloise, a 4-1 away victory against Antwerp, a 3-3 draw away at Cercle Brugge and a 1-1 home draw with Lommel SK. In those eight games they have scored sixteen goals and let in thirteen. They kept two clean sheets and failed to score in two matches. Six of the games featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in four of them. At home in the last four fixtures they have two wins, one draw and one loss.
Westerlo have struggled more, managing only two wins, one draw and five defeats in their last eight outings. Their recent form includes a 4-2 home win over Standard, a 4-0 away win at Mechelen, a 2-2 home draw with Waregem, a 4-0 away loss to Lommel SK, a 3-2 away defeat by Genk and a 5-1 home loss to St Gilloise. The two victories give them a brief lift, but their road record in the last four games is one win and three losses. Over the eight matches they have scored fourteen goals and conceded twenty. They kept one clean sheet and have been shut out twice. Seven of those games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in five. Their last game was eight days ago.
When the two clubs meet, the games have usually been high-scoring. In the last five meetings St Truiden have won three, Westerlo one and there has been one draw. Those encounters have averaged 3.2 goals each. The most recent meeting was a 4-0 win for St Truiden on 6 February 2026. Given the history of open matches and the fact that both sides have been involved in several games with three or more goals, we expect another lively contest with chances for both attackers.
Our pick is Westerlo to score. The chance of them finding the net is about 72 per cent, and the price on offer is 1.32, which is shorter than our own reading of the game. The bet only requires a goal from Westerlo, not a win or a high total, so it fits the expected 1.3 goals for them. It would go wrong if Westerlo are shut out, which could happen if St Truiden dominate and keep a clean sheet, but the odds of that seem low given the recent goal-rich history between the two clubs.
Recent results
St Truiden have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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