Borac Banja Luka v Zrinjski Mostar: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Borac Banja Luka to win 48%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from Borac Banja Luka and 0.8 from Zrinjski Mostar, so Borac Banja Luka come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Borac Banja Luka come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Borac Banja Luka to win. Borac Banja Luka are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.8), and we make them about 49% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.