What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Čelik Zenica and 0.9 from Radnik Bijeljina, so Čelik Zenica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Čelik Zenica to win. Čelik Zenica are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.9), and we make them about 52% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.86, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Čelik Zenica have won one of their last three.
✓Radnik Bijeljina have not won any of their last three.
