How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Široki Brijeg to win 47%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Široki Brijeg and 1.1 from BSK Banja Luka, so Široki Brijeg come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Široki Brijeg to win. Široki Brijeg are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.1), and we make them about 49% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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