How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Athletic Club to win 44%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Athletic Club and 1.0 from CRB, so Athletic Club come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Athletic Club to win. Athletic Club are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.0), and we make them about 45% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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