How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Sport Recife to win 35%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Avai FC and 1.1 from Sport Recife, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sport Recife come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sport Recife to win. Sport Recife shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.1), and we make them about 36% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 35 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.65, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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