What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Avai FC and 1.1 from Sport Recife, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sport Recife come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sport Recife to win. Sport Recife shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.1), and we make them about 37% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Avai FC only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 37%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
