What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Cuiaba and 0.8 from Operario Ferroviario, so Cuiaba come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Cuiaba to win. Cuiaba are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.8), and we make them about 49% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.20, which works out at about 45 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Operario Ferroviario a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 49%.
