What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Vila Nova and 0.8 from Ponte Preta, so Vila Nova come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Vila Nova to win. Vila Nova are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.7), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Ponte Preta a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 64%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
