How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 6. We made Vila Nova to win 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Vila Nova and 0.8 from Ponte Preta, so Vila Nova come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Ponte Preta come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Vila Nova to win. Vila Nova are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.8), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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