What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Fortaleza and 0.9 from Sao Bernardo, so Fortaleza come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Fortaleza come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Fortaleza to win. Fortaleza are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.9), and we make them about 48% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.60, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Sao Bernardo to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 48%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
