How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Novorizontino to win 36%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Athletic Club and 1.1 from Novorizontino, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Novorizontino to win. Novorizontino shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.1), and we make them about 38% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.60, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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