How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Criciuma (Draw No Bet) 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Criciuma and 0.7 from Fortaleza, so Criciuma come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Criciuma come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Criciuma (Draw No Bet). Criciuma are favoured here (xG 1.1-0.7), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Criciuma defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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