What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Atletico GO and 0.8 from Botafogo SP, so Atletico GO come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Atletico GO to win. Atletico GO are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.8), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.92, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Botafogo SP a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 55%.