What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Juventude and 0.7 from CRB, so Juventude come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Juventude (Draw No Bet). Juventude are favoured here (xG 1.3-0.7), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Juventude defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright CRB win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 75% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
