How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Juventude (Draw No Bet) 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Juventude and 0.7 from CRB, so Juventude come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Juventude (Draw No Bet). Juventude are favoured here (xG 1.3-0.7), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Juventude defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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