How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Sport Recife (Draw No Bet) 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Sport Recife and 0.8 from America MG, so Sport Recife come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sport Recife come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sport Recife (Draw No Bet). Sport Recife are favoured here (xG 1.7-0.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Sport Recife defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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