What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Athletic Club and 1.1 from Vila Nova, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Athletic Club to win. Athletic Club are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.1), and we make them about 36% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.35, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Vila Nova a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 36%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
