What to expect
Our pick: Criciúma SC to win. Criciúma SC shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.5), and we make them about 45% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Athletic MG have won one of their last five.
✓Criciúma SC have won one of their last five.
Recent meetings
17 Apr 2025Criciúma SC 4 - 0 Athletic MG
One thing to watch
Athletic MG only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We only make this about 45%, so it's far from a lock.
