How it turned out
The game finished with 3 goals. Both teams scored. We made América MG to win 37%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: América MG to win. América MG shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.1), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 4.60, which works out at about 22 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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