What to expect
Vila Nova GO come into this on two straight wins. Sport Recife PE come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sport Recife PE to win. Sport Recife PE shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.1), and we make them about 35% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 35 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.40, which works out at about 29 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Vila Nova GO to spoil this. We only make this about 35%, so it's far from a lock.
