What to expect

I like Ceará CE to win because they seem stronger than Ponte Preta. The price looks good for a team that we think has a good chance of coming out on top. We think they are more likely to win than some other options with bigger prices.

What the numbers say

✓Ponte Preta have won one of their last five.

One thing to watch

Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Ponte Preta a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 66%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.