What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Ceara and 1.0 from Londrina EC, so Ceara come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Londrina EC come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Ceara (Draw No Bet). Ceara are favoured here (xG 1.7-1.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Ceara defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Londrina EC win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 73% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
