What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Operario Ferroviario and 1.0 from Vila Nova, so Operario Ferroviario come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Operario Ferroviario come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Operario Ferroviario to win. Operario Ferroviario are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.0), and we make them about 43% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Vila Nova only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 43%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
