How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Operario Ferroviario to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Operario Ferroviario and 1.0 from Vila Nova, so Operario Ferroviario come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Operario Ferroviario to win. Operario Ferroviario are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.0), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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