How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Novorizontino or Draw 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Novorizontino and 0.9 from Sport Recife, so Novorizontino come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sport Recife come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Novorizontino or Draw. This covers Novorizontino or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.16, which works out at about 86 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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