What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Novorizontino and 0.9 from Sport Recife, so Novorizontino come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Novorizontino come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Novorizontino to win. Novorizontino are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.9), and we make them about 50% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Sport Recife only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 50%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
