What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Ponte Preta and 1.2 from Avai FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Avai FC to win. Avai FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.2), and we make them about 42% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Ponte Preta to spoil this. We make it about 42% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.