How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Cruzeiro to score 1 or fewer 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Atletico-MG host Cruzeiro in the Clássico Mineiro on 29 October. Atletico-MG sit just above the mid-table, while Cruzeiro are third with 54 points from 32 games and a +5 goal difference. The derby can move the table a little – a win would keep Cruzeiro in the top three and a slip could see them drop to fourth. On paper Atletico-MG look the stronger side in this match, but the points at stake are huge for both clubs.
Atletico-MG have played eight games in their recent run, winning four, drawing two and losing two. Their last five results are a 3-2 loss away to Flamengo, a 1-0 home win over Coritiba, a 2-1 home win over Santos, a 2-2 away draw with Athletico-PR and a 1-0 home win over Bragantino. At home they have been unbeaten in five games, with four wins and one draw. In those eight matches they have scored 12 goals and let in 10, keeping two clean sheets and failing to score only once. Four of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them.
Cruzeiro come into the game on the back of two straight victories. In their last eight outings they have won five, lost three and drawn none. The most recent fixtures are a 1-0 home win over Remo, a 4-2 away win at Gremio, a 4-2 away loss to Bragantino, a 2-0 home win over São Paulo, a 3-1 away win at Vitória and a 2-1 away loss to Santos. On the road they have two wins and three defeats in their last five trips. Across those eight games they have scored 17 and conceded 13, keeping two clean sheets. Six of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides found the net in six of them. Their last game was six days ago, giving them a little more rest than Atletico-MG, who played just three days ago.
In the last five meetings between the two clubs Atletico-MG have the edge with two wins, three draws and no win for Cruzeiro. The games have been tight, averaging 1.8 goals. The most recent encounter on 3 May saw Atletico-MG win 3-1 at home. Given the recent form and the history, we expect a low-scoring affair, with both sides likely to keep the tally under three goals.
Our pick is Cruzeiro to score one goal or fewer. The chance of this happening is about 74 per cent, and the price of 1.60 is longer than our reading of the game. For the pick to fail, Cruzeiro would need to find the net twice, which seems unlikely given their recent away record and the tight nature of this derby. We think the price is attractive and the bet has a good chance of succeeding.
Recent results
Atletico-MG have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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