How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Sao Paulo to score 1 or fewer 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Bahia host São Paulo at the 2026-10-29 kick-off in the Brasileirão Série A. Bahia sit seventh in the 20-team table with 50 points and a +5 goal difference, just one place above Atlético-MG and three points clear of Santos. A win would keep them in the European-qualification spots, while a slip could see them drop into the mid-table scramble. São Paulo sit a few places lower, looking to climb back toward the top half. Both teams have similar overall goal numbers this season, but the numbers we have give Bahia a slight edge in scoring chances.
Bahia’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight matches they have won three, drawn one and lost four. The most recent results are a 1-1 draw away at Santos, a 3-0 defeat at home to Flamengo, a 1-0 home win over Mirassol, a 1-0 loss away to Palmeiras, a 2-1 defeat away at Athletico-PR and another 2-1 loss away at the same club. In those eight games Bahia have scored eight goals and let in eleven. They kept only one clean sheet and failed to find the net in two matches. Five of the games featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in five of them. Their last four home games have been stronger, with three wins and one loss.
São Paulo have been a little steadier. In their last eight outings they have won four, drawn one and lost three. The sequence runs: a 1-1 draw away at Mirassol, a 1-0 home win over Vasco, a 2-1 home victory against Vitória, a 2-0 away loss to Cruzeiro, a 2-1 home defeat by Santos and a 1-0 home win over Internacional. They are unbeaten in their last three matches overall, though on the road they have not won in three, drawing once and losing twice. Across the eight games São Paulo have scored eight and conceded eight, kept three clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Only two of those games produced three or more goals, while both teams scored in three matches. Their most recent game was five days ago.
The two clubs have met five times before. São Paulo have the edge with three wins, one draw and one loss. Those games have averaged 3.2 goals, showing they tend to be open affairs. The latest encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on 2026-05-03, a match with plenty of chances for both sides. Given the recent scoring patterns – Bahia averaging a higher chance to score and São Paulo often keeping things tighter – we expect a modest scoring game, with São Paulo likely to stay under two goals.
Our pick is São Paulo to score one goal or fewer. The chance we give this outcome is 77 out of 100, and the price on offer is 1.39, which is longer than our own reading of the match. The price therefore looks attractive. For the bet to fail, São Paulo would need to find the net twice, which is a relatively low-probability event according to the figures we have. If they manage only a single goal or keep a clean sheet, the bet should pay off.
Recent results
Sao Paulo have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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