Gremio v CA Paranaense PR: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Gremio to win 55%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Gremio host CA Paranaense PR at the Brasileirão Série A on 30 October. Gremio sit lower in the table while Paranaense sit fourth of twenty with 54 points from 32 games and a +12 goal difference. One place above them is Cruzeiro, one place below is Fluminense, both level on points. A win for Gremio could lift them a few places and keep the gap to the teams around them tight, while Paranaense will be looking to hold onto their spot in the top four.

Gremio have not been in good form. In their last eight matches they have won only once, drawn three times and lost four times. The most recent results are a 1-0 win at Coritiba, a 4-2 loss to Cruzeiro at home, a 1-1 draw with Internacional at home, a 1-1 draw with Remo away, a 0-0 draw with Palmeiras at home and a 3-2 defeat to Botafogo RJ away. In those eight games they have scored eight goals and let in twelve. They kept two clean sheets but also failed to find the net in two matches. Three of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them. The side played just four days ago, so they come into this fixture on a short turnaround.

Paranaense have been steadier. Their last eight outings produced four wins, three draws and a single loss. The most recent fixtures are a 1-1 draw away at Vitória, a 2-0 loss to Palmeiras at home, a 4-1 victory away at Chapecoense, a 2-2 draw at home with Atlético-MG, a 2-1 win at home over Bahia and a 3-3 draw away at Coritiba. In those eight games they have scored fifteen and conceded eleven. They kept one clean sheet and were held scoreless once. Five of the matches saw three or more goals and both teams scored in six. Their last game was six days ago, giving them a little more rest than Gremio.

The two clubs have met before, but the data we have does not give specific head-to-head scores. Looking at the recent form, Gremio’s games have been tighter and have produced fewer goals, while Paranaense’s matches have been more open with more scoring on both sides. The numbers suggest a modestly low-scoring affair, with Gremio expected to score about 1.8 goals and Paranaense about 0.8. The chance of Gremio scoring at all is high at 81 %, while Paranaense’s chance is just over half at 54 %. Both sides have a reasonable chance of scoring twice, but Gremio’s is notably higher.

We back Gremio to win. The price of 2.45 is longer than our own reading of the game, which puts Gremio’s win probability at roughly 55 %. The numbers show Gremio as the stronger side, averaging almost two goals per game against less than one for Paranaense. If Gremio can find the net early, they should be able to hold on, especially after a short rest that may keep their players sharp. The pick would go wrong if Paranaense manage to break through early and then defend well, or if Gremio’s recent defensive frailties return and they concede more than one goal. In that case the match could slip away, but the balance still leans toward a home win.