How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Atletico-MG (Draw No Bet) 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Atletico-MG and 0.7 from Vitoria, so Atletico-MG come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Atletico-MG (Draw No Bet). Atletico-MG are favoured here (xG 1.5-0.7), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Atletico-MG defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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