How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 61%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from CA Paranaense PR and 1.4 from Fluminense, so Fluminense come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Fluminense come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.0-1.4), keeping it under more often than not (about 63%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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