How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Corinthians (Draw No Bet) 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Corinthians and 1.0 from Santos, so Corinthians come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Corinthians come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Corinthians (Draw No Bet). Corinthians are favoured here (xG 1.6-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Corinthians defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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