How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 3.5 goals 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Flamengo RJ and 1.0 from Botafogo RJ, so Flamengo RJ come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Botafogo RJ come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.1 goals (xG 2.2-0.9) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 73%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.50, which works out at about 67 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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