What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Flamengo RJ and 0.9 from Botafogo RJ, so Flamengo RJ come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Botafogo RJ come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Flamengo RJ to win. Flamengo RJ are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.0), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Botafogo RJ to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 63%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
