How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Bahia to win 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Bahia and 1.0 from Remo, so Bahia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Bahia come into this on three straight wins. Remo come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Bahia to win. Bahia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.0), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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