What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Botafogo RJ and 1.0 from Gremio, so Botafogo RJ come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Botafogo RJ to win. Botafogo RJ are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.0), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.78, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Botafogo RJ have not won any of their last five.
✓Gremio have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
5 Feb 2026Gremio 5 - 3 Botafogo RJ
22 Nov 2025Botafogo RJ 3 - 2 Gremio
24 Sept 2025Gremio 1 - 1 Botafogo RJ
29 Sept 2024Botafogo RJ 0 - 0 Gremio
16 Jun 2024Gremio 1 - 2 Botafogo RJ
