How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Botafogo RJ and 1.0 from Gremio, so Botafogo RJ come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Botafogo RJ come into this on three straight draws. Gremio come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Gremio to score 1 or fewer. This is about Gremio's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 76%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Botafogo RJ have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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