How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Over 2.5 goals 44%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Botafogo RJ host Palmeiras at the Maracanã on 6 September. Palmeiras sit second in the league with 53 points from 26 games and a +24 goal difference. They are one point behind Flamengo and eight ahead of Athletico Paranaense. Botafogo are down in the table, having lost three games in a row and sitting in the lower half of the standings. Both teams are looking for points, but Palmeiras have more to lose if they slip and Botafogo need a spark to climb out of the danger zone.
Botafogo’s last eight outings have been uneven. They fell 3-0 to Flamengo away, then lost 3-2 to Athletico-PR at home, and were beaten 1-0 by Vitoria away. A 1-1 draw with Fluminense at home followed, before a 1-0 win over Cruzeiro away and a goalless draw with Vitoria at home. That run gives them two wins, two draws and four defeats, with seven goals scored and eleven conceded. They have kept two clean sheets but have failed to find the net in three of those games. Four of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.
Palmeiras come into the game after eight games that have produced three wins, three draws and two losses. Their most recent results are a 0-0 draw with Santos away, a 1-1 stalemate with Mirassol away, a 3-0 home victory over Santos FC and a 4-1 win over Vasco at home. Before that they lost 3-2 to Fluminense away and drew 0-0 with Internacional at home. In those eight games they have scored 15 times and let in only seven, keeping four clean sheets while being shut out twice. Their last four road games show one win, two draws and one loss, and they are playing again after just three days of rest.
The two clubs have met five times before. Botafogo have won twice, Palmeiras twice and one game ended in a draw. Those encounters have produced an average of 1.8 goals. The most recent meeting was a 2-1 win for Palmeiras on 18 March. Given the recent form of both sides, we expect a game with chances at both ends. The goal expectations of 1.3 for Botafogo and 1.5 for Palmeiras point to a fairly open contest, likely to see both teams get on the scoresheet.
We back the over 2.5 goals. The price of 1.87 looks good compared with our reading of the match. With both teams averaging more than a goal per game in recent weeks and a history of scoring when they meet, a goal total above two and a half feels realistic. The pick could fail if Botafogo tighten up defensively and keep a clean sheet, or if Palmeiras struggle to finish after their short turnaround. In that case the game could stay under the line, but the balance of evidence leans toward a goal-rich encounter.
Recent meetings
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
