How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Cruzeiro to win 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Cruzeiro and 0.8 from CA Paranaense PR, so Cruzeiro come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Cruzeiro to win. Cruzeiro are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.7), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.89, which works out at about 53 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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