What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Coritiba and 1.1 from Mirassol, so Coritiba come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Mirassol come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.5-1.1) and it takes three to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 56%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.60, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. The price is shorter than our own read of about 56%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
