What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Fluminense and 0.9 from Vasco, so Fluminense come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Fluminense come into this on two straight wins. Vasco come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Fluminense to win. Fluminense are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 66% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Vasco a draw or better. We make it about 66%: a lean, not a lock.
