How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Corinthians and 0.8 from Chapecoense-SC, so Corinthians come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Corinthians come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.8 goals (xG 2.0-0.8) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 77%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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