How it turned out
The game finished with 3 goals. Both teams scored. We made Coritiba to win 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Coritiba to win. Coritiba are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.9), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Coritiba have won one of their last five.
✓Chapecoense-SC have not won any of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent results
11 Feb 2026Chapecoense-SC 3 - 3 Coritiba
3 Dec 2017Chapecoense-SC 2 - 1 Coritiba
6 Aug 2017Coritiba 2 - 0 Chapecoense-SC
11 Sept 2016Chapecoense-SC 1 - 0 Coritiba
2 Jun 2016Coritiba 3 - 4 Chapecoense-SC
Chapecoense-SC have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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