How it turned out
The game finished with 3 goals. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 58%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Gremio have won two of their last five.
✓Sao Paulo have not won any of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
12 Feb 2026Sao Paulo 2 - 0 Gremio
16 Oct 2025Gremio 2 - 0 Sao Paulo
18 May 2025Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Gremio
1 Dec 2024Gremio 2 - 1 Sao Paulo
18 Jul 2024Sao Paulo 1 - 0 Gremio
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. We make it about 58% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
