How it turned out
The game finished with 3 goals. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 58%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Gremio have won one of their last five.
✓Sao Paulo have not won any of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
12 Feb 2026Sao Paulo 2 - 0 Gremio
16 Oct 2025Gremio 2 - 0 Sao Paulo
18 May 2025Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Gremio
1 Dec 2024Gremio 2 - 1 Sao Paulo
18 Jul 2024Sao Paulo 1 - 0 Gremio
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